The Winning Formula

If someone to ask: "Is this the NFL only their particular class statistic that essential point against the spread"? There would be little time to respond. The answer – Pass Defense ratings, or PDE for short.

It may be a surprise to those purists who believe that the NFL is based on the rushing game, but at what point the defense team against the pass is a significant predictor of future results and this article explore how these statistics can directly affect mood and the action of punter paris "average" Joe in the circumstances appropriate.

The most effective way to measure the quality of the teams one step of Defense (the extent of disability against the point spread of it) is used by means of playpens, adjusted by the strength of the crimes happened a team has faced during the season.

As For example, entering the final week of the 2006 season, Chicago ranked second in the league with a rating of 0.75 PDE. This is calculated by taking the average yards Chicago pass play defense (4.77) and subtracting the way your pool opponents have passed the ball (5.52 yards per pass play in the attack.) 5.52 to 4.77 = 0.75. It should be noted that if I am calculating the note an offensive or defensive – A positive number always indicates a team that is better than average, while negative feedback means a computer that is below average in the category we are studying.

Now that I've explained the math, what are the potential uses of this Statistics? Situation especially when PDE shows its predictive power is that the team in question has a PDE> 0.50 and a single game that have closed their opponents ground attack.

The public likes to bet on teams and defenses difficult times, therefore, since 1994, teams with a 0.50 EDP> are very low, from 706-789 (47.2%) ATS.

This is the first major condition of this particular situation. The second is that our team will focus only game in which his opponent is limited to less than 75 yards rushing. After this stipulation, the record is now 167-260 (39.1%) ATS would have meant a profit of $ 7,630 bet against this team $ 110 from Paris to 10/11 odds.

If we include other conditions Primary specifying our team in question has also limited their last opponent to fewer than 60 total offensive plays – we have a situation the trend is real sharp 73-157 (31.7%) ATS since 1994.

The defense teams through difficult coming from a strong defensive effort – in particularly with respect yards rushing against – Create a situation that is difficult even for experienced handicappers to dismiss. How can you not like a computer appears to be impenetrable in the air and on land?

Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay were victims of this situation as during the last 13 seasons with Denver and Baltimore not far behind. This trend is particularly well distributed, however, that 93.8% of the league teams have participated at one time or another since '94.

There are a number of secondary illnesses that complement this. The teams they want, even after the final field goal to beat them in a previous session are not included, and games where the opponent's victory comes with Straight Up-Dog.

Check out all the details.

(Notes: ASMR spreads average margin index. A positive score indicates a trend that is stronger than average compared with the line, negative – weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league who have been involved in this situation at one time or another. Wt% is the percentage of teams that are 0500 or more and MMR is the average spread of the teams in this situation. For details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

Situation Overview Trends No. 46 (last update: January 15th, 2008)

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Pass Defense Rating (BDP)> 0.50.
2) Last match racing against yards (RYA) Secondary Conditions (braces)
1) Drop Clutch loss of GFR at the last meeting (LM4).
2) The words (OR) Location Statistics
Rams -0.9
% Home: 42.7
Dog%: 32.7
TDIS%: 96.9
Weight%: 84.2
RPD: -2.63
Top teams: PIT (20) TB (14), DEN (13), BAL (12)

Registration Status
In general (since 94): 32-127 ATS
2007 Season: 3-10 ATS
2006 Season: 4-13 ATS
2005 season: 1-9 ATS
2004 Season: 5-11 ATS

Last three results. Choose brackets.
WK18 2007 – SD 17 TEN 6 (SD -10) W
2007 WK18 – MAR 35 is 14 (SEA -3.5) W
WK17 2007 – October 16 TEN IND (ten -5.5) W

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas Point Spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized Team Ratings and Betting Systems, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com